Introduction
Ever walked into Sprint Planning wondering whether you should fill the next two weeks with work based on last sprint’s velocity—or on the actual hours your team will have?
That moment of doubt is common, and it can make the difference between predictable delivery and mid-sprint chaos. In this guide you’ll learn exactly when to lean on velocity and when capacity gives you the clearer lens, so your team stops over-committing and starts hitting Sprint Goals consistently.
Velocity-Based Planning: What History Can—and Can’t—Tell You
Velocity measures the average story points (or similar units) the team has completed over past sprints. It is literally yesterday’s news, and that is both its power and its limitation.
As Shortcut’s 2025 guide puts it, velocity is a measurement of the past, while capacity is an estimate of the future shortcut.com.
Advantages
- Quick forecasting. A three-sprint average is easy to calculate.
- Trend spotting. Rising or falling velocity highlights systemic issues early.
- Morale boost. Hitting a familiar number feels rewarding and builds confidence.
Drawbacks
- Blind to interruptions. Vacations, outages, and urgent fixes aren’t captured.
- Hides skill mix changes. New hires or role switches distort future output.
- May promote point chasing. Teams measured only on velocity can game the numbers.
Capacity Planning: When Availability Matters More
Capacity planning looks forward: how many person-hours or days will be available next sprint? Many Scrum Masters create a quick spreadsheet that subtracts public holidays, PTO, and training from each teammate’s nominal hours.
When Capacity Beats Velocity
- Holidays & big absences. Upcoming three-day weekends? Use capacity.
- Brand-new teams. You have no historical velocity yet.
- Large skill gaps. If half the sprint requires a specialist who’s 50 % allocated elsewhere, capacity is the safer bet.
A Simple Capacity Formula
Blending Velocity + Capacity for Reliable Forecast
Seasoned Scrum teams rarely choose one metric exclusively; they overlay capacity adjustments onto historical velocity:
Adjusted Velocity = Historical Velocity × (Next-sprint Capacity ÷ Normal Capacity)
If last sprint’s 40-point velocity was achieved with 200 focus hours and the upcoming sprint only has 180 h, the adjusted forecast is 36 points.
This hybrid keeps historical performance front-and-center while respecting upcoming constraints—a technique especially handy for distributed teams with rotating on-call shifts.
Common Pitfalls (and How to Avoid Them)
| Pitfall | Fix |
|---|---|
| Treating velocity as a target | Frame it as a signal, not a quota. |
| Ignoring non-development work | Block time for code reviews, DevOps, learning. |
| Manual capacity spreadsheets that drift | Automate with your ALM tool or a shared template. |
| Not revisiting estimates mid-sprint | Daily Scrum should surface variance so you can adapt. |
Sprint Planning Checklist (10 Minutes)
- Review Definition of Done—any changes that affect effort?
- Confirm PTO & absences.
- Pull last three velocities.
- Calculate total capacity hours.
- Apply adjusted-velocity formula.
- Select backlog items up to the point budget.
- Draft Sprint Goal.
- Double-check capacity of specialists (DBA, designer).
- Surface risks & dependencies.
- Commit as a team.
Data Spotlight
According to the 17th State of Agile Report, over one-third of teams are still evaluated on velocity, while only 30 % are measured on value delivered praecipio.com.
This underscores why understanding when to rely on velocity—and when to temper it with capacity—remains critical to Agile success.
FAQ
What’s the difference between velocity and capacity in Scrum?
Velocity is the average story points completed in previous sprints. Capacity is the forecast of work hours available in the upcoming sprint. One looks backward; the other forward.
How do I calculate team capacity quickly?
Multiply working days by focus hours per person, subtract meetings and PTO, and convert the remainder to points using your historical hours-per-point ratio.
Is capacity planning better for new Scrum teams?
Yes. With no reliable historical data, capacity gives a more honest forecast. After 3-4 sprints, blend in velocity.
Can velocity and capacity be used together?
Absolutely—apply capacity as a scaling factor to last sprint’s velocity to create an adjusted forecast.
Does the Scrum Guide mandate velocity or capacity?
No. The 2020 Scrum Guide leaves estimation techniques to the team; Sprint Planning simply requires a forecast and a Sprint Goal scrumguides.org.
Conclusion & Next Steps
Choosing between velocity vs capacity isn’t an either-or decision. Use velocity to honor your track record, temper it with capacity to respect real-world constraints, and you’ll ship increments that delight stakeholders—without midnight heroics.
Ready to put these tips into practice? Compare this sprint’s forecast to your actuals, refine, and repeat. For deeper guidance, explore our take on maintaining a sustainable pace and learn how long a sprint should really be in your context here.
Let’s plan smarter, deliver better, and make every Sprint Goal count!
