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Capacity Planning That Survives Reality

Replace wishful thinking with arrival/throughput trends and variability. Here’s a no-theory-bloat playbook you can run this week to set a simple capacity cap and boost predictability—without spreadsheets breeding in the wild. The 20% that moves 80% of results Match intake to historical throughput. Cap WIP by target cycle time (via Little’s Law). Price variability into…

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Bearded analyst in a suit points to a large monitor showing stock tickers and charts while two colleagues listen in a modern office.

Forecasting Without Story Points: A Monte Carlo Playbook

Build probabilistic delivery forecasts from historical throughput—plus caveats, confidence intervals, and an executive-ready chart. Most teams still try to “estimate” delivery with story points. You don’t need them. If you have a list of items finished per day/week (throughput), you can simulate thousands of futures in seconds and answer the only questions that matter: “When…

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