Introduction
Most teams “do” Sprint Goals, but many still ship activity instead of outcomes. The fix? Sprint Goals that are measurable, tied to your Product Goal, and tracked with EBM (Current Value, Time-to-Market, Ability to Innovate). In this guide, you’ll craft outcome-driven goals and visualize forecast vs. actual impact using a lightweight Jira dashboard.
Why this matters: in the latest State of Agile, 36% of teams are still measured on velocity, while only 29% are judged by value delivered—a gap that leads to busywork over business impact. 2288549.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net
What Makes a Sprint Goal “Outcome-Driven”?
An outcome-driven Sprint Goal describes the change you expect to see for users or the business, not just the tasks you’ll complete. It looks like:
- Outcome: “Increase activation rate from 42% → 50% for new sign-ups in DE.”
- Not activity: “Implement onboarding checklist and add two hints.”
The Sprint Goal should support your Product Goal, the longer-term target for the product that the team plans against (per the Scrum Guide). scrumguides.org
Quick test: If the Sprint Goal can be “done” while nothing improves for a user or stakeholder, it’s an activity goal.
Tie Sprint Goals to EBM (CV / T2M / A2I)
Evidence-Based Management (EBM) gives you four value lenses: Current Value (CV), Unrealized Value (UV), Time to Market (TtM), and Ability to Innovate (A2I). Use these to shape and measure goals: Scrum.org
- CV (current outcomes): e.g., conversion, NPS, revenue per user.
- TtM (speed of learning): e.g., cycle time, lead time to release. Scrum.org
- A2I (how easily you can deliver new value): e.g., escaped defects, % time on new vs. sustaining work. Scrum.org
Example Sprint Goals by EBM lens
- CV: “Lift checkout completion from 71% → 75% on mobile by simplifying address form.”
- TtM: “Cut cycle time P50 from 8 → 5 days by removing QA queue handover.”
- A2I: “Reduce build failures from 9% → 4% to free capacity for experiments.”
Why EBM? Because leaders still over-index on project metrics and velocity. Moving to value and flow aligns success with outcomes. 2288549.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net
How to Craft Measurable Sprint Goals (Template Inside)
Use this fill-in-the-blanks template during Sprint Planning:
In this Sprint, we will [change metric] from [baseline] to [target] for [user/segment] by [key approach], validated by [measurement method] within [timeframe].
Example
“In this Sprint, we will increase new-user activation from 42% → 50% for Germany by shortening onboarding to 2 steps and adding progressive hints, validated by Mixpanel funnel within 7 days of release.”
Checklist (use at Planning):
- Baselined metric? (CV/TtM/A2I)
- Clear target + timeframe?
- Product Goal alignment?
- Falsifiable? (Would we know if it didn’t work?)
- Smallest bet? (One Sprint sized)
Related reads on my site:
- Velocity vs Capacity – plan realistically for stronger Sprint commitments. igorlakic.com
- Stop Carryover: Use Flow Metrics to finish what you start. igorlakic.com
Forecast vs. Actual Impact: a Simple Jira Dashboard
You don’t need plugins to get a useful “forecast vs. actual” view.
Step 1 — Create two number fields (admin)
- Forecast Impact (number) – used to estimate expected value points for each PBI tied to the Sprint Goal.
- Actual Impact (number/percent) – filled after Sprint Review to record observed impact.
Create number fields in Jira Cloud admin (Fields → Create new field). Atlassian Support
Tip for team-managed: you can set number formats (number, currency, %). Atlassian Support
Step 2 — (Company-managed) Set your board’s Estimation Statistic
On your Scrum board: Board settings → Estimation → Estimation Statistic → pick your numeric field (e.g., Forecast Impact). Jira supports using a custom numeric field here, and dashboard gadgets (like Burndown/Velocity) will use that statistic. Atlassian CommunityAtlassian Support
Step 3 — Add two gadgets to a dashboard
- Velocity Chart — shows Forecast (Committed) vs. Actual (Completed) for each Sprint using your estimation statistic.
- Sprint Health — quick status of scope change and completion.
Add gadgets: Dashboards → Edit → Add gadget. Atlassian Support
Step 4 — Capture “Actual Impact”
At Sprint Review (or 1–7 days post-release), update Actual Impact on the issues that drove the goal (e.g., experiment story, key slice). You can list them on the dashboard with a Filter Results gadget (show columns: Key, Summary, Forecast Impact, Actual Impact, Sprint).
Optional — JQL filters you’ll reuse
- Sprint items for last 3 Sprints
project = ABC AND sprint in closedSprints() ORDER BY sprint DESC
- Items contributing to goal (tag with label
sprint-goal)project = ABC AND sprint in openSprints() AND labels = sprint-goal
Learn (or share) JQL basics with your team if you’re new to it. Atlassian SupportAtlassian
Worked Example (EBM + Jira)
- Product Goal: “Double weekly active creators by Q4.”
- Sprint Goal (CV lens): “Increase template publish rate from 18% → 24% for first-week users.”
- Backlog slice: Guided template picker, live preview, “save as draft.”
- Forecast Impact: 5 “value points” (your bespoke scale) across the slice.
- After release: Publish rate hits 22% (partial). Stories marked Done sum to 4 value points in the Velocity Chart; Actual Impact values are recorded per story.
- Retro: We met 80% of the forecast; plan a follow-up experiment to reach the full 24%.
Common Pitfalls (and How to Avoid Them)
- Activity masquerading as outcomes: If your goal lists tasks, rewrite it using the template until a metric moves.
- No baseline: Without a baseline you can’t tell if the Sprint worked. Capture P0 metrics before Sprint Planning.
- All or nothing: Target an improvement range (e.g., +3–5 pts) to keep learning over perfection.
- Measuring only velocity: Balance capacity metrics with value and flow; otherwise you optimize for output, not outcomes. 2288549.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net
How This Ties Back to Scrum Essentials
The Sprint Goal is the single objective for the Sprint and a commitment that creates focus and flexibility; the Product Goal gives long-term context for planning. Use them together so every Sprint bet advances the Product bet—with EBM providing the evidence you’re moving the needle. Scrum.orgscrumguides.org
Want a structured approach? Check out my Evidence-Based Management Program. igorlakic.com
FAQ
What’s a good “value point” scale if we don’t want to use money?
Start with a simple 1–8 Fibonacci-like scale that reflects expected business impact (e.g., 1 = minor UX polish, 8 = step-change to a key metric). Later, calibrate to monetized outcomes with finance.
Can we use Story Points for forecast vs. actual?
You can, but Story Points are effort, not impact. If you must, use Story Points for capacity and add a separate Forecast Impact field for outcomes, then show Velocity for delivery and Filter Results for impact.
Does Jira let us sum “Actual Impact” on the dashboard?
Out-of-the-box gadgets don’t sum custom numeric fields. The Velocity and Burndown gadgets do chart your chosen Estimation Statistic (e.g., Forecast Impact) for forecast vs. actual. If you need totals for Actual Impact, either export from the Filter Results gadget or consider a marketplace gadget later. Atlassian Support
How do we pick the right EBM lens?
If you’re aiming to move a customer/business metric now, use CV. If learning speed is the bottleneck, pick TtM. If the system fights every change, go for A2I first. Scrum.org
Conclusion & CTA
Sprint Goals become powerful when they’re measurable, tied to the Product Goal, and tracked against EBM. Start with one outcome-driven goal next Sprint, visualize forecast vs. actual in Jira, and use what you learn to plan a sharper next bet.
Want help turning goals into results? Book a session via my Scrum Program
