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Forecasting Without Story Points: A Monte Carlo Playbook

Build probabilistic delivery forecasts from historical throughputโ€”plus caveats, confidence intervals, and an executive-ready chart. Most teams still try to โ€œestimateโ€ delivery with story points. You donโ€™t need them. If you have a list of items finished per day/week (throughput), you can simulate thousands of futures in seconds and answer the only questions that matter: โ€œWhen…

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